Poll: Astronomy possible in 2021?

Personally, I think that this subjective question (Do you have the impression that...) in an astronomy forum will be heavily impacted by selection bias. I'd be curious, instead, to look at historical data of cloud coverage... Perhaps this information is available in some public archives of meteorological institutes?

Sure we don't want to have a conversation about the soon to be tens of thousands of satellites going up there for telecom purposes?

Sure we don't want to have a conversation about the soon to be tens of thousands of satellites going up there for telecom purposes?

I wouldn't have considered it, although it's an environmental impact. What I had in mind is rather effects that are not *immediate* man-made effects.

On the average for over 10 years and the average of the past year  (clear nights good enough fior observing vs. total nights) I can confidently say that this year is within 1 sigma of the average distribution for the years 2001-2012.

What source did you use? Maybe I can find some numbers for my location. I don't have sufficient personal record to but numbers behind it.

General comment: In case I gave this impression, I want to clarify: It's simply a question what impressions people have about something. If someone has data available, even better. In no way did I intend to conclude from the numbers of the poll to the validity of a hypothesis or not. 

Besides this, very often the null-hypothesis (or theory) is just a *guess*; sometimes good, sometimes bad, sometimes well-informed, sometimes fully ignorant. The data will help to shed light on it. And still the conclusion may remain subjective - keyword: p-Value. So I don't see anything wrong in asking people about their opinion or impression in order to develop a possible null-hypothesis for testing?

Cheers!

Björn

Well this thread is somewhat funny because I just had this conversation with a couple of my astronomy friends a week or two ago here in Auburn, Michigan, USA. - Penmitlaw Observatory. Latitude: 43º 25’ N Long: 84º 9’ W

While our weather here in Michigan has never been perfect for visual observations or AP we have noticed that the winds here have been higher then in recent years. At least thats what we have noticed anyway. And clouds have certainly been an issue as well. Very rarely do we ever get more then 2 consecutive clear nights (if we do we feel blessed) so observations/imaging that is a multi night project is for the most part a long term project.

I’m appx 15 miles off the coast of Lake Huron and depending on the time of the year lake effect is always an issue. In the late fall early winter we have clouds for 2-3 months staight until the lake freezes over and then we may get a couple of clear nights here and there. We always joke around saying, “Ok who bought some new equipment!” Which I’m sure is a standard joke around the astronomy community world wide.

Anyway thats my input.

Dale

Weather in Northern France was excellent in 2021 so far, as it was in the first half of 2020. Only lockdown prevented me from taking dozens of pictures during spring. I think this is the usual flucutation with good periods and less ones.
However I feel big concern about satellite trails. They were exceptionnal until end of 2019, now I have 60% of my pictures with 2-4 trails, wide field with longer exposures might become a problem.
I would not be surprised if in the future amateurs will adopt remote on satellites or even on the Moon, no kidding, it is only a question about offer and demand and ratio weight/price.

well for me, i live in California, and im sure sick of smoke from fires filling the skies for 3 months out of the year. it wasnt always like this. it hasnt started this year but we are much drier than last year already

I think objective data would show that there have been changes for the bad and for the good, even with climate change, but this would be dependent on location.  As the question is worded, it would also have to be weighted depending on the number of observers within each location.  Probably this is very obvious to everyone.  So in three sentences I have said nothing!

But since I moved to Oregon (north western coast USA) 6 years ago, the first few years we had pretty typical weather, though hotter than normal in the summers.  As is typical in the pacific nw, our pattern is to be cloudy and wet in the months from later Oct. through April and May even.  But spectacular skies in the summer.  Starting 4 years ago, the wild fires have impacted that seriously in the summer months.  While no wildfires burned close to my home, the smoke from as far away as California drifted north and impacted viewing for weeks on end.  This has since not let up, but has gotten worse.  Two years ago, the smoke got thick enough that I actually snapped photos of the sun (with sunspots) directly with an SLR and no filters.  But last year we had days from closer fires that were pitch black during the day, the whole day.  Those fires in Oregon last year burned a very high percentage of all trees in the mountains just west of my location.  As of yet, no fires in the mountains of the coast range, which is where I live.  But unless you are blind, the writing is clearly on the wall.  BTW, I had lived in Seattle from 1993 prior to the move south to Oregon.  For a decade, while there were fires, they rarely impacted the distant seeing.  But in the few years prior to my move, say 10 years ago, smoke from both California and the Cascade range east of Seattle became more prevalent.  But nothing like the current situation. 

Today, Portland Oregon hit 108 F.  A daily record surpassed by 6 F.  Tomorrow the forecast is for 111 or 112.  113 for my town.  Portland also surpassed the all time temperature record by 1 F.  Our climactic high temperatures typically arrive at the end of July through August.  

So "my answer" to the question is a definite yes!  For those who do this work and have observatories in those areas and were threatened or destroyed the last number of years, the answer must be yes.  But the debate will rage on that this is not an effect of environmental change.  The climate will not pay attention to that debate, of course.

The benefits to observing, if any, will be seen, again, dependent on where you live.  To be a protagonist, I would argue that once all the trees of the western USA are completely burned and the climate stays dry here, then eventually we will have nothing but clear skies from then on!

Alan

So far, 2021 has actually been quite good. I was able to collect data for a everal projects in the period of February until April, before summer recess (AP is a no go from May until late August up here). But when I look at what  I've collected over the past years, there is the pattern that is described by the OP; about 2 clear nights per month, sometimes less, sometimes more. And excluding the nights with a full moon.

Anyway:

CS,

Wim

Helle everyone,

I have also the impression it is getting worse, but what worries me more: if there are no significant clouds, the transparency is is getting worse and worse. I think it is related to the increasing humidity. So the cloud coverage is only one indicator among many.

When I had started astronomy in 1984 there were plenty of dark and crispy nights. Real dark black sky. The last time I can remember seeing such a deep dark and clear night was 7 years ago. Now they are all washed out, misty or milky white illuminated.. 

I think the minimal increase of ever age temperature caused by the climate change has multiple impacts. Clouds are the most obvious, humidity, transparency and mist are the less obvious and probably not measured at the local weather stations, but also very much impacting our hobby. 

CS (hopefully)
Rüdiger

Ruediger:
When I had started astronomy in 1984 there were plenty of dark and crispy nights. Real dark black sky. The last time I can remember seeing such a deep dark and clear night was 7 years ago. Now they are all washed out, misty or milky white illuminated...

What you see are the effects of increased LP, not increased humidity. When I was little kid I could see the Milky Way from my house in the outskirt of Rome. Nowadays you're lucky to see few stars.

Ruediger:
Clouds are the most obvious, humidity, transparency and mist are the less obvious and probably not measured at the local weather stations, but also very much impacting our hobby.

The German weather stations operated by the DWD also measure humidity and visibility, amongst other values. If I find some time, I can also check this data.

Hi,
sure they have humidity, but I doubt whether they have a reliable information about transparency. Very often they claim perfect clear sky, but actually it has a terribly bad seeing resp. transparency. 
but anyway, would be cool to compare humidity.

While atmospheric water vapor (humidity) may be a contributing factor, it likely is not the issue alone.  Some of the best seeing conditions that can be had are found in the dark sky sites of Florida and within the tropics.  Here the humidity can be about as high as is possible.  So it is noteworthy that as climate change is expected to increase atmospheric water vapor in mid and higher latitudes (with lots of evidence backing that up) something else has to be in play to work with that.  Water vapor itself is transparent to visible light.  The high water vapor content of those areas are also extremely deep and reach to high altitudes.  But, high levels of water vapor can be condensed into droplets when there is an increase in particulates and other components such as airborne "pollution" both man-made or natural.  Both of these may also be increasing due to climate change.  So while you may well be experiencing a degradation of seeing in your area that can't be attributed to LP, the reasons may be a bit more complex that you think.  It is my understanding that the world has done a much better job at reducing the amount of aerosol-type pollution over the past decades, primarily by a decrease in burning of coal for power.  But I believe that far eastern economies are rapidly picking up the slack in coal burning.  What you see in your area could be very local.  Is there a lot of wood burning in the winter?  Are there valleys and hills/mountains that create inversions trapping the particulates?  If yes, have you noticed a significant decrease in night winds with an increase in inversions?  Might be interesting to know.